Learn To Trade the Breakout (Part III)
Suppose you want to detect a trend reversal breakout. You can identify it through the MACD divergence signals. You should look at how the MACD histogram is performing when you spot a potential breakout scenario on a currency pair chart.
If the currency pair has been making new highs, is the MACD histogram also forming higher peaks? If it is so, you can safely assume that the uptrend is likely to continue and any breakout to the downside will be short lived and probably false.
However, if the MACD histogram shows a bearish divergence, this is a strong signal that a downside breakout is more likely to be sustained than false. The reverse holds true for a bullish MACD divergence.
A MACD divergence signal is a strong signal for a trend reversal. However, it seldom occurs. But when it makes an appearance immediately take note. Another momentum indicator that can help you anticipate when the prices are at the verge of breaking out is the RSI.
The RSI measures the relative changes between the higher and lower closing prices over a period of time. RSI stands for the Relative Strength Index (RSI). A reading of 70 and above indicates that the currency pair is overbought. A reading of 30 or lower indicates that the currency pair is oversold.
The most useful way of applying RSI is through its divergence signals. However, an uptrend could register a prolonged period of overbought conditions. Similarly, a downtrend could register a prolonged period of oversold conditions.
A bearish divergence appears when the currency pair rallies to a new high. But RSI makes a lower high instead. Bullish divergence occurs when a currency pair declines to a new low. But the RSI makes a higher low like that in MACD.
Remember that it is very difficult to predict with 100% accuracy the success of a breakout so you should always use proper risk analysis when planning a trade. Using momentum indicators like MACD and RSI can sometimes provide clues to internal trend weaknesses. These clues work since momentum proceeds price change for the breakout trading strategy.
Before implementing the breakout trading strategy, detail technical analysis of the current and past price action must be carried out in order to tilt the odds of success in your favor. Trading breakout can be a very profitable strategy if it is applied sensibly after thorough analysis.
Price breakouts may be triggered by sudden forex related news or comments or unexpected geopolitical events. Breakouts frequently occur along trendlines. A trendline breakout could signal a reversal or continuation of trend. In case of a trend continuation, this break may indicate a temporary interruption in the prevailing trend or signal that the trend will continue but at a slower pace.
Trading channel breakout is a very profitable strategy among the currency traders. A channel basically consists of two parallel trendlines which can be drawn to encapsulate the price action.



